Iran, Trump and Strait of Hormuz – Who Is the “Bad Guy”?

By Peter Koenig

[This article by Peter Koenig was first published on Global Research. You can read it here.]

“Let me get one thing straight: Egypt charges $200,000 to $700,000 per transit through the Suez Canal.

Large container ships or tankers can exceed $1 million. Panama charges $100,000-$450,000 per transit.

Large Neopanamax vessels cost up to $500,000 to transit the Panama Canal.

Turkey charges fees for the Bosphorus Strait. Canada charges fees for the St. Lawrence Seaway.

The United States charges fees for the St. Lawrence Seaway. Iran has refused to collect fees for the Strait of Hormuz for decades.

They made it free! Despite the defamation, sanctions, and isolation— and yet you want me to believe that Iran is the “bad guy” here?”

— Iranian Foreign Minister addressing the world

***

All indications are that the latest Middle East War is another so-called Messianic War, now Iran, before Iraq, in fact all Middle Eastern Wars – and beyond, including Ukraine, are driven by Zionism.

A Messianic War is a violent conflict driven by theological or apocalyptic beliefs, intended to trigger the “end times,” usher in a messianic age, or fulfill divine prophecy.

In the context of the Israel-Palestine war, it involves factions using religious fervor to justify territorial expansion or the rebuilding of a Third Temple; a typical way of justifying the drive for Greater Israel, the Israel of the Chosen People, brought about by endless Messianic Wars.

What makes these wars “Messianic Evil” is that the West has been bought buy them, that they give the western powers, the framework for pursuing a One World Order – a Global Government, where constant wars, conflicts and artificially man-made disasters, such as climate change and plandemics, help depopulating the world, following exactly the tracks of UN Agenda 2030; and where Zionism will also be reigning over the world’s principal monetary system. Zionism will be humanity’s guiding Sword Ruler (see also Dark Souls II – video game).

It seems like the US was drawn into this war by Netanyahu blackmailing Trump (Epstein files) against Congress’ and the Pentagon Brass’ better advice. It is an evil war that Israel cannot win, not even with the sophisticated armament of the United States. This has clearly transpired in the last three weeks, since the abrupt beginning of the hot conflict on 28 February 2026.

Trump, following his buddy and so-called friend “Bibi”, has gone out of this world to promise hell on earth for Iran, if …. If what? If Iran continues to be a major nuclear risk for the people of the United States? And that during negotiations held in Geneva on 26 February, monitored by Oman, coming to an abrupt halt by President Trump allowing friend Bibi attacking Iran, with the promise that the US will follow. It is a typical move of cowardice, attacking a country while in the midst of Peace negotiations.

All this is based on a humongous lie, as confirmed from military experts around the world, even if Iran had nuclear weapons – she DOES NOT, but Israel does – Iran would not be a risk for the United States.

According to Shia tradition and culture, to which Iran belongs, a fatwa (ruling) prohibits the production and use of nuclear weapons. A fatwa is not merely a theological opinion; it serves as an authoritative legal ruling from the highest religious authority (the Marja’al-Taqlid) and carries significant normative weight, strong evidence of Iran’s lack of intention to pursue the development of nuclear weapons.

Does President Trump and his war minister Hegseth know what a Shia fatwa is? Or do they simply not care, as is the western usual way of saying we do not understand and do not want to understand other cultures’ values?

In addition to the religious-philosophical dimension, Iran’s position also has a clear legal foundation: The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), to which Iran became a signatory in 1968, and from which it has never withdrawn, including after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. In contrast, Israel is not a party to the NPT; nevertheless, the US and the West have long directed complaints at Tehran while remaining silent about Israel.

So, who are the “bad guys” and who are the “good guys”?

The assassination of top Iranian leaders never had a chance of bringing about a revolution in the country, according to Rami Igra, a former senior Israeli Mossad official. He told RT in an exclusive interview (RT 24 March 2026), the US-Israeli strategy of decapitating Iran’s leadership in the hope of sparking a revolution was a “miscalculation” that has failed to destabilize the Islamic Republic. He also stated that those who expected Iranians to take to the streets after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials were “greatly disappointed.”

Mr. Igra continued,

“People don’t understand what a revolution is. You need a popular movement – there is no popular movement in Iran. You need local leadership – not [Reza] Pahlavi from Los Angeles,” referring to the exiled son of the last Iranian shah who has positioned himself as an alternative to the country’s current clerical leadership.

President Trump may have listened to the former Mossad agent, and / or he may be smelling a rotten fish and backing down from one of his most horrendous “promises”, striking and obliterating Iran’s power network with Israeli-US aerial attacks. He has ordered a “ceasefire” of sorts, delaying for five days the planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, claiming “very good and productive” talks with Tehran are under way and will continue through the week.

This time the threat does not refer to Iran’s “nuclear arsenal” but rather to their move to close the Strait of Hormuz which Iran controls, for all enemy ships. Not for those of friendly nations.

Remember, some 20 to 25% of all hydrocarbon the world uses as primary source of energy floats through the Strait of Hormuz.

Yet, political observers doubt that Trump’s “5-day pause” has anything to do with “well-going talks” to re-open the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian officials insist there is “no dialogue between Tehran and Washington,” describing Trump’s statements as a flagrant lie, an attempt to cool energy markets and buy time for his military plans. Tehran has warned it will target regional energy infrastructure, as well as desalination plants on the Gulf States on the other side of the Persian Gulf, if US attacks resume. These countries’ survival depends on desalination for drinking water and on (electric) energy made from petrol.

President Trump contradicts himself within the space of hours. In his Truth Social post announcing the postponement, he said the US and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” over two days about a “complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” In a subsequent call with CNBC, he described the discussions as “very intense,” said they would continue through the week, and voiced hope that “something very substantive” could be achieved.

It is more likely that those who call the shots on the war – maybe the City of London? – are more interested in an “intermediary” profit-taking than in a quick solution to the war.

The Kobeissi Letter (TKL) is a reasonably credible news outlet, showcasing technical and financial analysis on the S&P 500, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Bonds and Options. TKL reports on “X” that within ten minutes from the time Trump said that the US and Iran had productive discussions on how to end the war (about 7 AM on 22 March), the S&P 500 surged 240 points, adding literally US$ 2 trillion to the market. About 27 minutes later, Iran completely denied all of Trump’s claims, saying there has been no contact between Iran and the US.

By 8 AM the same day, the S&P 500 had dropped 120 points, erasing about US$ one trillion, though still leaving a trillion-market gain. That is a US$ 3 trillion swing market within less than an hour. Where did this trillion flow? Who has the algorithm capacity to cash in on these almost instantaneous moves? Not you and me, but the billionaires and the City of London.

The same motives, less blatant, may be behind the never-ending Ukraine war. They are both masterminded by the City of London with zero consideration for human lives.

In a recent interview with Odysee TV, Prof. Sayed Mohammad Marandi said bluntly Israel and the US are afraid to attack Iran because retaliation will be severe – on all regional energy / electricity production infrastructure of the dictatorships on the other side of the (Persian) Gulf. He also said the “5-day pause” may be to ease oil markets for a while, while not specifically saying, though, pointing also to the financial gains emanating from Trump’s bluff about the positive US-Iranian talks.

Professor Marandi is an American-Iranian academic, political analyst, and professor at the University of Tehran. He is a prominent media commentator and known as a staunch supporter of the Iranian government, frequently appearing in international media to discuss Iranian foreign policy and nuclear negotiations.

For more details of the interview, see the video within the RT article 23 March 2027.

In the context of potential hydrocarbon shortages and observing how Europe is still arming to go to war against Russia, President Putin said Europe would be the red light in the waiting line for Russian gas; another nail in the EU economic suicide coffin.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry has recently urged people to wait for the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to publicly declare his stance on the “fatwa” of producing and using nuclear weapons. This may be a subtle indication that Teheran may consider shifting from a previous dogmatic prohibition towards a potential revision of its nuclear doctrine.

For Shia society, particularly within Iran’s theocratic model, “fatwa” decrees hold both religious and political-legal significance. Thus, for about three decades, Iranian officials have consistently cited this “fatwa” as proof for Iran’s abstaining from pursuing development of nuclear weapons.

This evidence has been verified annually by the Vienna based UN Atomic Energy Agency. Therefore, all pretenses to the contrary, like Iran is a nuclear danger for the people of America, by Trump and previous US Administrations, are mere fearmongering and make-believe lies.

However, a fatwa in the Shia legal tradition, is not an absolute or unchanging doctrine. It is a theological-legal ruling that can be reassessed or revoked based on changing circumstances, new knowledge, or shifts in the political-security landscape.

May this unprovoked Israeli-US war of aggression against Iran create the circumstances to convert Iran for the purposes of self-defense into a nuclear state. Time will tell who is the “bad guy.” The next steps of the US Administration will be crucial.

***

Peter Koenig is a geopolitical analyst, regular author for Global Research, and a former Economist at the World Bank and the World Health Organization (WHO), where he worked for over 30 years around the world. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed; and co-author of Cynthia McKinney’s book “When China Sneezes: From the Coronavirus Lockdown to the Global Politico-Economic Crisis” (Clarity Press – November 1, 2020).

Peter is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG). He is also a non-resident Senior Fellow of the Chongyang Institute of Renmin University, Beijing.